比 大 屍

星期三, 1月 10, 2007

10 Common Trading Errors

1. Little Preparation or Training
When you enter the market arena, you had better be prepared. However, few traders perform the necessary due diligence before moving headlong into the markets: "The market is a food chain — the big fish eat the little fish." Dr. Elder agrees that many people underestimate what it takes to be a profitable trader.

Recommendation: Enter the market with a sufficient amount of training, through vehicles such as books published on securities trading, educational courses, and trading conferences.

2. Being Too Emotional About Money
According to professionals, the reason many emerging traders fail to consistently earn profits is because of their perceptions of money. There are ways to desensitize one's emotional connection to money. Start by trading smaller share size (such as 100 shares per trade). Trading in smaller quantities can help minimize both the losses and the emotional distress that often comes with losing larger amounts of capital.

Recommendation: Over time, as a trader becomes more successful, experts suggest slowly raising the share size — without raising your blood pressure — until a personal comfort zone is reached.

3. Lack of Recordkeeping
It's understandable why traders become emotional when trading stocks. To help bring these emotions under your control, keep a detailed trading diary.

Recommendation: Track your trading history by using a daily diary and study your progress.

4. Anticipating Profits
Most traders don't want to acknowledge that a trade could turn against them. They enter the market assuming they'll be successful, refusing to look in the rearview mirror. It's also common for emerging traders to use a calculator to predict how much they'll make and how they'll spend the unrealized profits! It's dangerous to anticipate how much you'll make in advance.

Recommendation: Enter a trade with the understanding that you may not be right. It can then be easier to acknowledge if a trade goes against you.

5. Blindly Following Mechanical Systems
A large percentage of traders use technology — in the form of online trading platforms that provide charting, research, and backtesting tools — to help them refine their strategies. A computer and software can provide important information about the technical and fundamental characteristics about stocks. However, many traders make the common mistake of relying too much on these tools without a full understanding of their capabilities.

Recommendation: Understand that computers and software trading platforms are only tools. Learn how to grasp the underlying trading concepts — such as reading and analyzing a chart —and know the reasons why you bought and sold a security.

6. Not Learning How to Short
If you fail to learn how to utilize short trading strategies, then you have cut yourself out of a number of profitable trades. Many people think that shorting is un-American or too risky.
By not learning know how to go short, you're removing a significnat percentage of potential trades, especially when the Bull market falters. The market is a two-way street, and the person who doesn't short is missing a part of the game.

Recommendation: Don't underestimate the importance of shorting stocks, and learn how to utilize this technique.

7. Lack of Specialization
Many people are attracted to trading because they think it's an easy vehicle for making money. However, there are several types of securities that can be traded in today's markets, including stocks, options, commodities, futures, and currencies. It is a daunting task to learn the characteristics of each security type. Therefore, it's often helpful to specialize.

Recommendation: Know what you trade. Don't spread yourself too thin by trading markets that you don't understand.

8. Improper Timing
It's very common for emerging traders to make timing mistakes. Quite often, a trader may have a good idea, but discovers that he or she bought the stock at an inopportune price. Timing a trade is never an exact science, but it's important for traders to recognize that there are times when it might be prudent to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

Recommendation: A detailed trading diary and experience could help minimize timing errors.

9. Placing Improper Stops
Many traders incorrectly place stop orders, causing their positions to get stopped out too early and failing to capture much profit. It's common for newbies to place stops according to a set percentage, such as 2%, or a set amount. How much a trader is willing to lose depends on his or her risk-tolerance. Place stops according to what the market is telling you, such as support and resistance levels. When placing a stop, let the stock's behavior, or a standard deviation, tell you where the best stop placements are.

Recommendation: Try placing stops according to the stock's standard deviation, rather than on the basis of percentages or dollar amounts.

10. Not Calculating a Stock's Risk-Reward Ratio
Many traders do not calculate the risk-reward ratio of a stock trade before they establish a position. A stock's risk-reward ratio is the relationship between an investor's desire for capital preservation at one end of the scale and a desire to maximize returns at the other end. How do you determine a stock's risk-reward profile? There are three common components of a stock's risk-reward ratio: current stock price (a known); and a profit objective and stop exit price (both subjective). Calculating a profit objective and a stop exit for a trade often involves many factors, such as standard deviation or technical indicators, including Fibonnaci and moving averages.

Recommendation: Before you enter a trade, the first question you should ask yourself is: What is the risk-reward ratio of trading this stock? If you are a novice trader, using a low risk-reward ratio could help lower your potential downside.


Entering the market with a neutral attitude is a good approach.
"What is, is. If you're in an uptrend, go long. If you're in a downtrend, go short. If you're overbought, wait for a reversal and go short. If you are oversold, wait for a reversal and go long." -Robert Deel, CEO and trading strategist for Tradingschool.com


Source:10 Common Trading Errors
Michael sincere
Fidelity,
http://personal.fidelity.com/myfidelity/atn/archives/december2005.shtml

星期三, 1月 03, 2007

大升市中再尋寶

12月下半個月實在太忙,所以寫blog既時間都用黎休息同埋玩。聖誕新年假期差不多全貢獻了給太太和朋友,適逢網路癱瘓更有藉口跳出網上世界。

黎到07年,估唔到會係股市不斷創新高,中資股依然日日照升如儀,細膽驚青如我也於新年前將手頭上的中油香港及工行賣出。面對股市升跌幅度越來越大的環境,為免爆血管還是減持為妙。

雖說減持為妙,但仍識過膽粗粗買入中交建及錦江酒店並持有幾日,勢估唔到收獲已有10巴仙,開心之餘擔心更大,開心當然係賺到錢,擔心就係呢種市況很難搵出增長之餘又有合理價格既好股。在傳言消息滿天飛時,好容易做錯決定,所以趁機空倉冷靜一下。

未來股市其中一個利好消息相信係08奧運,呢個消息相信亦最少會影響到07年尾,所以相關既股票亦會有一定升值潛力。那些股票會有關連?價格又相對地落後呢?我估計其中一類是造酒業。正如世界杯曾令啤酒需求激增,我相信於中國亦會有相似效應。但現在言之尚早,還是用多點時間多加留意奧運的進展來得更實際。

星期四, 12月 14, 2006

人吃人的社會(二)

今日睇am730,賢仔案被告孔女士被判12年,是多是少也好已成定案,上訴與否由它罷,反正事件終於有個了解。

坊間一向大把噪音話「邊個邊個好明顯係有罪,但係邊個邊個先至係罪魁禍首黎」呢一類自以為看透世情的說話。就法律上而言,個官都判左啦,孔女士罪名成立,其前男友罪名成立,斬人手既兩個細路罪名成立,接載既的士司機罪名成立,但係孔女士既丈夫岑先生,法律上無任何罪名。坊間眼見個個有關人物都有個正路既下場時,呢位無乜下場既岑生,自然有人睇唔過眼,孔女士既父母出於愛女之心自然認為岑生害左個女一世。

一個家庭已經出現如斯慘劇,仲要俾好多香港人抽絲剝繭咁揪晒所有人出黎,寫晒罪狀,十足十答題機器,理性之餘又答得快而準!但係批判過後,璀璨歸於平淡,整件案對自己有冇絲毫既反思?處理感情問題同呢兩公婆係咪差唔多?有冇好似岑生咁講左既野唔算數?有冇好似孔女士連未來奶奶反對結婚都唔理三七廿一?

如果真係驚有朝一日會成為同類案件既主角,係咪依家就要改變一下呢?

如果真係驚有朝一日會成為同類案件主角既父母,係咪依家就要諗點樣灌輸正確價值觀俾子女?

另一邊廂,高琳琳日記又觸動唔少人既神經。有人睇完好感動,有人睇完好衝動,有人睇完好激動。

只有九日生命的琳琳,父母懷孕中期得知胎兒有病,仍決定保留直到出生,在病榻輾轉下離開人世。激動一派自然認為,早知胎兒有病仲生佢出黎咪即係叫佢受苦,語調跟「早知買左個菠蘿開左見到係爛心既就咪鬼食啦」差唔多。當呢個世界有討論到底一個胎兒到第幾週先算係一個「人」既時候,要父母當個胎係菠蘿既難度真係幾高。

我未試過呢種經歷亦唔想有,不過我設身處地諗,撇除醫學、技術問題,我老婆有左個有病既胎兒,首要一定係老婆既安全,個胎既安全,才到醫生其他的建議。說到底,大家都係血肉之軀,有感情,並非除手掉個菠蘿入垃圾桶咁簡單。

我唔知道胎兒出世前或出世後幾耐先會有思想意識,唔知佢會唔會明有人叫自己阿媽落左自己既感受係點;或者第日又會有人同你講「生左你出黎幾廿年,淨係識食、訓同埋駁咀,早知當初落鬼左你」,唔知你又有咩感受。

星期四, 12月 07, 2006

音樂椅玩完未?

今日股市新一輪新股抽水掀開序幕。建滔積層板(1888)率先登場,收報$8.93,比招股價7.73升$1.2,每手都有幾百蚊賺。由於超額認購啟動回撥,所以今次公開發售多至3億75百萬股,亦因此令每人最少有一手,皆大歡喜。我果一手仲未賣,不過照成交股數睇就應該好多人放左,因為今日有3億95百萬股成交咁多,我認為基金可能係想盡快收貨想令街貨減少再借市旺炒上,原本公開發售得一成貨基金較易得手,依家要花多少少功夫喇。

黎緊仲有中國通訊服務、奧普、招金、錦江、中國交通建設及真明麗等新股,大部份都應該會高倍超購,呢批股趁起鬨一定會大收旺場,但係提防造左個尖頂後迅速回落,到時千祈唔好低吸喇。

近來開始有利淡消息,但係無乜人理會,可能個市真係太旺喇。匯豐發出盈警呢個消息,真係令好多價值投資者反應各異,有人認為再有機會低吸,有人認為匯豐於環球經濟向好的情況下出得盈警,顯示有隱憂。我認為匯豐這次盈警是投資者的一記當頭棒喝,當各地股市異常亢奮之時,其實是危機四伏。匯豐沒有再於新興市場加大投資,轉而鞏固現有歐美市場,是否想說明,投資新興市場風險已頗高,又缺乏好的併購機會提高市場份額?不少分析說油價大升、息口及美國經濟見頂對於比經濟行前6至9個月的股市影響至大,甚有機會作大調整。如此看來,來季美股業績期時要多加留意了。

我見依家市內風高浪急,今日也將手上部份股份減持,包括月內以$8.2買入的中石油,及$13買入的工銀亞洲,仍然持有$3.7買入的中油香港及$3.5買入的工商銀行。現況增持現金比例不失為保守的選擇,無法啦,因為心血少,驚自己玩到爆血管。


**************************************
免責聲名:以上內容關於任何投資市場資訊及意見只是個人經驗分享,並非投資建議。

星期二, 12月 05, 2006

用腳投票

買股票就好似去街市買菜一樣,當日見到邊樣靚既就買邊樣。好正常丫。部份股民更加只會買佢地認識既股票,例如有用到該間公司既服務或者有生意來往等。例如有人買新鴻基既樓住,覺得無論設計、用料、間隔、價格甚至服務維修等等都非常滿意,於是就會買新鴻基既股票,因為知道「有麝自然香」。

同大家息息相關既上市公司有好多,今次講下食方面。早陣子紅猴股評提及兩家上市食店:大家樂和大快活。

每逢上班日子都要出外午餐,而我最主要光顧的食店主要是大家樂和大快活。我記得六七八九年前,是非常討厭大快活這家食店,主因當然係食物質素比同級的大家樂差一皮唔止,就以我至愛既炸雞脾沙律為例,咁簡單既小食,大快活既出品都明顯地給大家樂比下去。我相信係同整體處理菜單的質素及穩定性有莫大關係。

近來,自大快活搵左Alan Chan,幫整個企業改頭換面之後,大快活真的可謂一洗頹風。入型入格既餐廳設計,食物質素的提升,重點食品宣傳攻勢再加合適代言人,完全發揮十成功力,將以往俾大家樂壓住黎打既局面扭轉。

現在的我比較喜歡去大快活食飯,咖哩飯系列及一般中式套餐也較合我口味;相反覺得大家樂各款飯食並無明顯進步,食物水準參差之餘欠缺賣相,唯一好處是飯量平均比大快活多。

所以一眾市民的味蕾是雪亮的,從兩家食店五年的股價走勢可知一二。

星期一, 12月 04, 2006

你痴定佢痴

我很介意自己只懂向錢看。

我總相信人與人之間的相處,不一定只有利益掛帥。

不過,香港繁華背後,人心被五光十色的物質蠶食,所剩的只有一副自我的銅臭軀殼。

貧富懸殊的香港裡,你看到這兩個人,會有怎麼樣的感嘆?

你會說「唔做野又學人生仔食綜援,抵死!」?

你會說「貧賤夫妻百事衰,當笑話睇下算」?

你會說「訓街都要博見報,想出位搵水乎」?

你會說「睇死佢會離婚,不過唔知有冇錢攪手續」?

撫心自問,腦袋有否泛起一絲絲的感動,相信他們真心相愛?

人說「歡場無真愛」,我並無研究,到底天橋底下有無真愛。

我信人間有情,不是特首鼓勵市民生三個的口號,也不是流行曲電影劇集的老套橋段。

試試看,剝掉那副有色眼鏡。

星期五, 12月 01, 2006

兩個人變成一家人

日前趁老婆得閒,同佢講「我地好耐無睇過戲喎,不如去睇劉華丫?」其實只係我對戰爭片的濃厚興趣挑起左戲癮。

於是出左九龍灣諗住去Broadway,點知懵盛盛去左UA,算啦,都係戲院一間。去到Counter一睇,中後靚位無晒咁滯,不過我淩厲的目光發現後排右邊仲有兩個連位,我心諗點會後排差唔多爆晒而淨係果度有兩個連位,即時問「呢兩個位係咩位」,果位哥仔即時答「係情侶位黎」。

我實在係太耐無去戲院喇,醒唔起係有情侶位呢樣野,我諗個位得一邊有個枕手位唔會兩邊夾住坐得唔舒服,印象中以前坐都好開心下,於是二話不說就俾錢。老婆突然用一對好精靈既眼神望望我話「我地坐情侶位!拍拖牙?」

「你都傻既,唔通唔睇咩。」以前拍拖點同依家,你嫁左喇,唔好咁多幻想。

其實我地以前有無試過睇戲坐情侶位呢?...原來係有既,仲要就係九龍灣UA添,不過睇咩戲就唔記得喇。唔怪得老婆反應咁大。

例牌地去便利店睇下有無咩野好食可以買入場。我習慣一睇戲就斷水斷糧,等我盡量專心睇戲,老婆就次次都要搵野食,我發覺佢志在食多過睇戲。

終於要入場喇,但係當我地去到自己個情侶位時,我地無第一時間坐落去,只係定格望住個位幾秒,老婆之後望一望我,我終於開聲「呢度係一個位定係兩個位?」我地再望望其他位,真係坐兩個人喎。我心諗「今次真係中伏,個位細到同屋企一格梳化差唔多,點捱兩粒幾鐘」。

我地好辛苦坐低左,屁股貼屁股,我膝頭頂到前面個位實一實,都唔知會唔會瘀添。

唔寫戲評了,成套戲都OK好睇。不過要起身鬆人時,兩隻腳好「冤」下,好明顯係血氣唔運行,老婆反而若無其事。

「以後都咪鬼黎呢間度睇戲,貼錢買難受!」

「你睇你個肚腩丫。」

......吼!劉華教我要兼愛非攻。